Economic Uncertainty and Fertility in Europe
Principal Investigator:
Prof. Daniele Vignoli
Host Institution:
Dept. Statistics, Informatics, Applications (DiSIA) – University of Florence
Project duration:
September 2017 – August 2022
Budget:
1.689.272 EUR
Funding:
The EU-FER project is funded by the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme, grant agreement n° DLV-725961
- Daniele Vignoli, Alessandra Minello, Giacomo Bazzani, Camilla Materia, Chiara Rapallini (in press). The Causal Influence of Narratives of the Future on Fertility: Evidence from a Laboratory Experiment. European Journal of Population.
- Trude Lappegård, Axel Peter Kristensen, Lars Dommermuth, Alessandra Minello, Daniele Vignoli (in press). The Impact of Narratives of the Future on Fertility Intentions in Norway. Journal of Marriage and Family.
- Francesca Giambona, Laura Grassini, Daniele Vignoli (2022). Detecting Economic Insecurity in Italy. A Latent Transition Modelling Approach. Statistical Methods and Applications.
- Natalie Nitsche, Anna Matysiak, Jan Van Bavel, Daniele Vignoli (2021). Educational Pairings and Fertility Across Europe: How Do the Low-Educated Fare? Comparative Population Studies, 46: 533-554.
- Arianna Gatta, Letizia Mencarini, Francesco Mattioli, Daniele Vignoli (2021). Employment Uncertainty and Fertility Intentions: Stability or Resilience? Population Studies, on-line first.
- Elena Bastianelli, Daniele Vignoli (2021). The Gendered Relationship between (Old and New forms of) Employment Instability and Union Dissolution. Population Research and Policy Review, on-line first.
- Valentina Tocchioni, Ann Berrington, Daniele Vignoli, Agnese Vitali (2021). The changing association between homeownership and the transition to parenthood. Demography, 58(5): 1843-1865.
- Giammarco Alderotti, Daniele Vignoli, Michela Baccini, Anna Matysiak (2021). Employment Instability and Fertility in Europe: A Meta-Analysis. Demography, 58(3): 871-900.
- Chiara L. Comolli, Daniele Vignoli (2021). Spread-ing Uncertainty, Shrinking Birth Rates: A Natural Experiment for Italy. European Sociological Review, 37(4): 555-570.
- Danilo Bolano, Daniele Vignoli (2021). Union Formation Under Conditions of Uncertainty: The Objective and Subjective Sides of Employment Uncertainty. Demographic Research 45: 141-186.
- Daniela Bellani, Bruno Arpino, Daniele Vignoli (2021). Time Preferences and Fertility: Evidence From Italy. Demographic Research 44: 1185-1228.
- Niccolò Innocenti, Daniele Vignoli, Luciana Lazzeretti (2021). Economic Complexity and Fertility. Insights From a Low Fertility Country. Regional Studies 44: 1185-1228.
- Anna Matysiak, Tomáš Sobotka, Daniele Vignoli (2021), The Great Recession and Fertility in Europe: A Sub-national Analysis. European Journal of Population 37(1): 29-64.
- Daniele Vignoli, Raffaele Guetto, Giacomo Bazzani, Elena Pirani, Alessandra Minello (2020). A Reflection on Economic Uncertainty and Fertility in Europe: The Narrative Framework. Genus. Journal of Population Sciences 78(28).
- Daniele Vignoli, Giacomo Bazzani, Raffaele Guetto, Alessandra Minello, Elena Pirani (2020). Uncertainty and Narratives of the Future. A Theoretical Framework for Contemporary Fertility. In: R. Schoen [Ed.], Analysing Contemporary Fertility, Springer, pp. 25-47.
- Daniele Vignoli, Letizia Mencarini, Giammarco Alderotti (2020), Is the Effect of Job Uncertainty on Fertility Intentions Channeled by Subjective Well-Being? Advances in Life Course Research, 46, 100343.
- Daniele Vignoli, Valentina Tocchioni, Alessandra Mattei (2020). The Impact of Job Uncertainty on First-birth Postponment. Advances in Life Course Research, 45, 100308.
- Daniela Bellani, Giulio Bosio (2019). Knockin’on heaven’s door? Reframing the debate on temporary employment and wages: evidence from Europe. Socio-Economic Review.
- Valentina Tocchioni, Carlotta Cangi, Daniele Vignoli (2019). Incertezza economica e formazione dell’unione in Italia: un’analisi causale. Rivista Italiana di Economia, Demografia e Statistica LXXIII (4): 137-148.
- Annalisa Busetta, Daria Mendola, Daniele Vignoli (2019). Persistent joblessness and fertility intentions. Demographic Research 40: 185-218.
- Marcantonio Caltabiano, Emanuela Dreassi, Emilia Rocco, Daniele Vignoli (2019). A sub-regional analysis of family change: The spatial diffusion of one-parent families across Italian municipalities, 1991-2011. Population, Space, and Place
- Raffaele Guetto, Nazareno Panichella (2019). Family Arrangements and Children’s Educational Outcomes. Heterogeneous Penalties in Upper Secondary School. Demographic Research, 40:1015-1046.
- Niccolò Innocenti, Daniele Vignoli, Luciana Lazzeretti (2018). The impact of economic development on fertility: a complexity approach in a cross-country analysis. In: Abbruzzo A., Brentari E., Chiodi M., Piacentino D. Eds., Book of Short Papers SIS 2018, Palermo, 20-22 June, Pearson, pp: 1154-1158.
- Alessandra Minello, Valentina Tocchioni (2018). Tra lavoro e famiglia: analisi della relazione tra tempo dedicato al lavoro e prima unione in Italia. Rivista Italiana di Economia Demografia e Statistica LXXII (4), 29-40.
- Valentina Tocchioni (2018). Exploring the Childlessness Universe: Profiles of Women and Men without Children in Italy. Demographic Research 38: 451-470.
- Danilo Bolano, Daniele Vignoli (2020). First Union Formation in Australia: Actual Constraints or Perceived Uncertainty? DiSIA Working Paper 2020/07
- Niccolò Innocenti, Daniele Vignoli, Luciana Lazzeretti (2020). Economic Complexityand Fertility. Insights from a Low Fertility Country. DiSIA Working Paper 2020/03
- Daniela Bellani, Bruno Arpino, Daniele Vignoli (2020). In medio stat filius. The relationship between time preferences and fertility. DiSIA Working Paper 2020/02
- Daniele Vignoli, Raffaele Guetto, Giacomo Bazzani, Elena Pirani, Alessandra Minello (2020). Economic Uncertainty and Fertility in Europe: Narratives of the Future. DiSIA Working Paper 2020/01
- Chiara L. Comolli, Daniele Vignoli (2019). Spread-ing uncertainty, shrinking birth rates. DiSIA Working Paper 2019/08
- Valentina Tocchioni, Ann Berrington, Daniele Vignoli, Agnese Vitali (2019). Housing uncertainty and the transition to parenthood among Britain’s “Generation Rent”. DiSIA Working Paper 2019/07
- Giammarco Alderotti, Daniele Vignoli, Michela Baccini and Anna Matysiak (2019). Employment Uncertainty and Fertility in Europe: A Network Meta-Analysis of European Research Findings. DiSIA Working Paper 2019/06
- Giammarco Alderotti, Eleonora Mussino, Chiara Ludovica Comolli (2019). Natives’ and Migrants’ Childbearing during the Great Recession: A Comparison between Italy and Sweden. Stockholm Research Report in Demography | no 2019:17
- Daniele Vignoli, Letizia Mencarini, Giammarco Alderotti (2018). Is the Impact of Employment Uncertainty on Fertility Intentions Channeled by Subjective Well-being? DiSIA Working Paper 2018/04
- Anna Matysiak, Tomáš Sobotka, Daniele Vignoli (2018). The Great Recession and Fertility in Europe: A Sub-National Analysis. Vienna Institute of Demography Working Papers 02/2018
- Daniele Vignoli, Valentina Tocchioni, Alessandra Mattei (2018). First-Birth Gains and Losses from the First Job in Italy: The Role of Employment Uncertainty. DiSIA Working Papers 2018/02
Economic Uncertainty and Fertility Intentions: Evidence from a Laboratory Experiment
- Conference: European Population Conference Webinar, June 26 2020
- Presented by: Daniele Vignoli
Fertility under Uncertainty
- Seminar: SUDA online Demographic Colloquium, Stockholm University, May 28 2020
- Presented by: Daniele Vignoli
Fertility under Conditions of Uncertainty in Europe
- Seminar: CED – Centre for Demographic Studies. Barcelona, Spain, 28 November 2019
- Presented by: Daniele Vignoli
Economic Uncertainty and Fertility in Europe.
- Keynote speech: Gender and Generation User Conference. Paris, France, 24 October 2019
- Presented by: Daniele Vignoli
Employment and fertility in couples: whose employment uncertainty matter most?
- Conference: SIS 2019 Smart Statistics for Smart Applications
- Authors: Valentina Tocchioni, Daniele Vignoli, Alessandra Mattei,
Bruno Arpino - Presented by: Valentina Tocchioni
Incertezza economica e formazione dell’unione in Italia: un’analisi causale
- Conference: LVI Riunione Scientifica SIEDS “Benessere e Territorio: Metodi e strategie”, Ascoli Piceno Italy, 23-24/5/2019,
- Authors: Valentina Tocchioni, Carlotta Cangi, Daniele Vignoli
- Presented by: Valentina Tocchioni
The Interrelationship between Union Formation and Transition to Parenthood: the Role of Economic Uncertainty (POSTER)
- Conference: 27th Annual Population Postgraduate Conference (PopFest), London School of Economics and Political Science (UK), 28-30/05/2019
- Authors: Giammarco Alderotti, Alessandra De Rose, Valentina Tocchioni, Daniele Vignoli
- Presented by: Giammarco Alderotti
Fertility under fundamental uncertainty
- Seminar: Centre for population change, Southampton UK, 16/5/2019
- Presented by: Daniele Vignoli
Natives’ and Migrants’ Childbearing during the Great Recession: A Comparison between Italy and Sweden
- Conference: Children in Ethnic or Migrant Minorities, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock (Germany), 16-17/05/2019
- Authors: Giammarco Alderotti, Eleonora Mussino, Chiara Ludovica Comolli
- Presented by: Giammarco Alderotti
Fertility under fundamental uncertainty
- Invited Presentation: 2019 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America in the Session “Understandng the Determinants of Low Fertility”
- Presented by: Daniele Vignoli
Economic complexity and fertility: Insights from a low fertility country
- Conference: “2nd International Workshop Rethinking Clusters”, Padua Italy, 15-17/05/2019
- Authors: Niccolò Innocenti, Luciana Lazzeretti, Daniele Vignoli
- Presented by: Niccolò Innocenti
Employment Uncertainty and Fertility: a (Network) Meta-Analysis of European Research Findings (POSTER)
- Conference: 2019 PAA Annual Meeting, Austin, Texas (US), 10-13/04/2019
- Authors: Giammarco Alderotti, Daniele Vignoli, Michela Baccini
- Presented by: Giammarco Alderotti
Natives’ and Migrants’ Childbearing during the Great Recession: A Comparison between Italy and Sweden (POSTER)
- Conference: 2019 PAA Annual Meeting, Austin, Texas (US), 10-13/04/2019
- Authors: Giammarco Alderotti, Eleonora Mussino, Chiara Ludovica Comolli
- Presented by: Giammarco Alderotti
Network Meta-Analysis in Demography: the Relationship between Employment Uncertainty and Fertility in Europe
- Conference: Convegno AIE di primavera – Associazione Italiana di Epidemiologia – Bologna, Italy, 18-19/03/2019
- Authors: Giammarco Alderotti, Daniele Vignoli, Michela Baccini
- Presented by: Giammarco Alderotti
Natives and Migrants’ Job Instability and Fertility during the Great Recession: a Comparison between Italy and Sweden
- Conference: “III Convegno SISEC 2019 – A Sud del Nord e a Nord del Sud” Naples, 31/1/2019 – 2/2/2019
- Authors: Giammarco Alderotti, Eleonora Mussino, Chiara Ludovica Comolli
- Presented by: Giammarco Alderotti
Parental Divorce and Occupational Achievement in Italy
- Conference: Third SISEC Conference – Italian Society of Economic Sociology Naples, Federico II University 31/1/2019 – 2/2/2019
- Authors: Gabriele Ballarino, Stefano Cantalini, Raffaele Guetto, Nazareno Panichella
- Presented by: Raffaele Guetto
Education, Unemployment and Fertility in Western Europe
- Conference: Third SISEC Conference – Italian Society of Economic Sociology Naples, Federico II University 31/1/2019 – 2/2/2019
- Authors: Raffaele Guetto, Daniele Vignoli
- Presented by: Raffaele Guetto
In medio stat filius. The relationship between time preferences and fertility in Italy
- Conference: Giornate di Studio sulla Popolazione 2019 Bocconi University, Milan, 24-26/1/2019
- Authors: Daniela Bellani, Bruno Arpino, Daniele Vignoli
- Presented by: Daniela Bellani
Economic Uncertainty and Fertility in Europe: The Role of Education
- Conference: “Population Days – 13th Edition” Milan, 24-26/1/2019
- Authors: Raffale Guetto, Daniele Vignoli
- Presented by: Raffaele Guetto
Parental Divorce and Occupational Achievement in Italy
- Conference: “Population Days – 13th Edition” Milan, 24-26/1/2019
- Authors: Gabriele Ballarino, Stefano Cantalini, Raffaele Guetto, Nazareno Panichella
- Presented by: Raffaele Guetto
Economic uncertainty and fertility intentions in Italy: Which uncertainty matters?
- Conference: Giornate di Studio sulla Popolazione 2019 Bocconi University, Milan, 24-26/1/2019
- Authors: Arianna Gatta, Francesco Mattioli, Mencarini Letizia, Daniele Vignoli
- Presented by: Daniele Vignoli
Employment Uncertainty and Fertility: A Network-Meta-analysis of European Research Findings
- Conference: “Population Days – 13th Edition” Milan, 24-26/1/2019
- Authors: Giammarco Alderotti, Daniele Vignoli, Michela Baccini
- Presented by: Giammarco Alderotti
Natives and Migrants’ Job Instability and Fertility during the Great Recession: a Comparison between Italy and Sweden
- Conference: “Population Days – 13th Edition” Milan, 24-26/1/2019
- Authors: Giammarco Alderotti, Eleonora Mussino, Chiara Ludovica Comolli
- Presented by: Giammarco Alderotti
“Wife or Businesswoman? The Role of Gender-Dominated Jobs in Defining Women’s Entry into Union in Italy”
- Conference: Giornate di Studio sulla Popolazione 2019 Bocconi University, Milan, 24-26/1/2019
- Authors: Alessandra Minello, Valentina Tocchioni
- Presented by: Alessandra Minello
“Moglie o donna in carriera? Il legame tra tempo di lavoro, segregazione occupazionale, prestigio e l’ingresso in unione”
- Conference: V Convegno Nazionale AIQUAV, Firenze, 13-15/12/2018
- Authors: Alessandra Minello, Valentina Tocchioni
- Presented by: Alessandra Minello
The Impact of the Great Recession on Natives and Migrants’ fertility: a Comparison between Italy and Sweden
- Seminar: Stockholm University Demography Unit (SUDA) – 13/11/2018
- Authors: Giammarco Alderotti, Eleonora Mussino, Chiara Ludovica Comolli
- Presented by: Giammarco Alderotti
Wife or businesswoman? The role of gender-dominated jobs in defining women’s entry into union in Italy
- Conference: “XI Conferenza ESPAnet Italia 2018 – Oltre la continuità: le sfide del welfare in un mondo globale”, Università degli Studi di Firenze, 13-15/9/2018
- Authors: Alessandra Minello, Valentina Tocchioni
- Presented by: Alessandra Minello
Economic Uncertainty and Fertility in Italy: Which Uncertainty Matters?
- Conference: “XI Conferenza ESPAnet Italia 2018 – Oltre la continuità: le sfide del welfare in un mondo globale”, Università degli Studi di Firenze, 13-15/9/2018
- Authors: Arianna Gatta, Francesco Mattioli, Letizia Mencarini, Daniele Vignoli
- Presented by: Daniele Vignoli
Employment Uncertainty and Fertility: A Network-Meta-analysis of European Research Findings
- Conference: “XI Conferenza ESPAnet Italia 2018 – Oltre la continuità: le sfide del welfare in un mondo globale”, Università degli Studi di Firenze, 13-15/9/2018
- Authors: Giammarco Alderotti, Daniele Vignoli, Michela Baccini
- Presented by: Giammarco Alderotti
The Transition to Parenthood Among Britain’s “Generation Rent”: Examining the Changing Role of Housing Tenure
- Conference: BSPS ANNUAL CONFERENCE 2018, Winchester (UK), 10-12/9/2018
- Authors: Valentina Tocchioni, Ann Berrington, Daniele Vignoli, Agnese Vitali
- Presented by: Ann Berrington
Employment Uncertainty and Fertility: A Network-Meta-analysis of European Research Findings
- Conference: “BSPS Annual Conference 2018”, University of Winchester, 10-12/9/2018
- Authors: Giammarco Alderotti, Daniele Vignoli, Michela Baccini
- Presented by: Giammarco Alderotti
The Effect of the Great Recession on Natives and Migrants’ Fertility: a Comparison between Italy and Sweden
- Conference: “BSPS Annual Conference 2018”, University of Winchester, 10-12/9/2018
- Authors: Giammarco Alderotti, Eleonora Mussino, Chiara Ludovica Comolli
- Presented by: Giammarco Alderotti
Employment Uncertainty and Fertility: a Meta-analysis of European Research Findings
- Conference: “49th Scientific Meeting of the Italian Statistical Society”, Palermo, Italy, 20-22/6/2018
- Authors: Giammarco Alderotti, Daniele Vignoli, Michela Baccini
- Presented by: Giammarco Alderotti
The impact of economic development on fertility: a complexity approach in a cross-country analysis
- Conference: “49th Scientific Meeting of the Italian Statistical Society”, Palermo, Italy, 20-22/6/2018
- Authors: Niccolò Innocenti, Daniele Vignoli, Luciana Lazzeretti
- Presented by: Niccolò Innocenti
The Transition to Motherhood among British Young Women: Does housing tenure play a role?
- Conference: “49th Scientific Meeting of the Italian Statistical Society”, Palermo, Italy, 20-22/6/2018
- Authors: Valentina Tocchioni, Ann Berrington, Daniele Vignoli, Agnese Vitali
- Presented by: Valentina Tocchioni
Employment Uncertainty and Fertility in Europe: a Meta-analysis
- Conference: “European Population Conference 2018” – organized by the European Association for Population Studies, 6-9/6/2018, Bruxelles, Beglium
- Authors: Giammarco Alderotti, Daniele Vignoli, Michela Baccini
- Presented by: Giammarco Alderotti
Is there a Reversal in the Educational Gradient in Second Birth Risks? A Cross-country Comparison of Timing and Quantum Effects
- Conference: “European Population Conference 2018” – organized by the European Association for Population Studies, 6-9/6/2018, Bruxelles, Beglium
- Authors: Daniele Vignoli, Anna Matysiak
- Presented by: Anna Matysiak
The Transition to Parenthood among Britain’s “Generation Rent”: Examining the Changing Role of Housing Tenure
- Conference: “European Population Conference 2018” – organized by the European Association for Population Studies, 6-9/6/2018, Bruxelles, Belgium
- Authors: Valentina Tocchioni, Ann Berrington, Daniele Vignoli, Agnese Vitali
- Presented by: Valentina Tocchioni
Local development, complexity and fertility: Insights from Italy
- Conference: “Regional Studies Association Annual Conference”, 3-6/6/2018, Lugano, Switzerland
- Authors: Niccolò Innocenti, Luciana Lazzeretti, Daniele Vignoli
- Presented by: Niccolò Innocenti
Wife or Businesswoman? The Role of Gender-Dominated Jobs in Defining Women’s Entry into Union in Italy
- Conference: “LV Riunione Scientifica SIEDS” – organized by the Italian Society of Economics, Demography and Statistics, Università degli studi dell’Insubria, 24-25/5/2018, Varese, Italy
- Authors: Alessandra Minello, Valentina Tocchioni
- Presented by: Valentina Tocchioni
Economic Uncertainty and Fertility: New Macro and Micro Evidence
- Seminar: PhD program in Sociology and Social Research, University of Trento, 17/5/2018
- Presented by: Daniele Vignoli
Employment Uncertainty and Fertility in Europe: a Meta-analysis
- Seminar: University of Stockholm Demographic Unit (SUDA), 3/5/2018
- Presented by: Giammarco Alderotti
Is the Impact of Employment Uncertainty on Fertility Intentions Channeled by Subjective Well-Being?
- Conference: “Population Association of America 2018 Annual Meeting” – 26-28/4/2018, Denver, US
- Authors: Daniele Vignoli, Letizia Mencarini, Giammarco Alderotti
- Presented by: Daniele Vignoli
Economic Uncertainty and Fertility: New Macro and Micro Evidence
- Seminar: Dipartimento di Economia e Statistica “Cognetti de Martiis”, University of Turin, 31/5/2018
- Presented by: Daniele Vignoli
Family Arrangements and Inequality of Educational Opportunities in Upper Secondary School in Italy
- Conference: “Il destino del lavoro: tra ricerca di senso e rivoluzione digitale” – 2nd Meeting SISEC organized by the Italian Society of Economic Sociology, 25-27/1/2018, Milan, Italy
- Authors: Raffaele Guetto, Nazareno Panichella
- Presented by: Raffaele Guetto
The transition to parenthood among Britain’s “Generation Rent”: examining the changing role of housing tenure
- Conference: “XXVIII International Population Conference in Cape Town – IUSSP 2017″, South Africa 29/10 – 4/11/2017
- Authors: Valentina Tocchioni, Ann Berrington, Daniele Vignoli, Agnese Vitali
- Presented by: Daniele Vignoli
First Birth Losses and Gains under Economic Uncertainty in Italy
- Conference: “XXVIII International Population Conference in Cape Town – IUSSP 2017″, South Africa 29/10 – 4/11/2017
- Authors: Daniele Vignoli, Valentina Tocchioni, Alessandra Mattei
- Presented by: Daniele Vignoli
First Birth Losses and Gains under Economic Uncertainty: The Case of Italy
- Conference: “Low Fertility, Labor Market, and Family: Factors, Outcomes, and Policy Implications”, Organized by the Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs and the East-West Center, Honolulu, Hawaii, 17-20/10/2017
- Authors: Daniele Vignoli, Valentina Tocchioni, Alessandra Mattei
- Presented by: Daniele Vignoli
Economic Uncertainty and Fertility
- Seminar: University of Catania, 11/10/2017
- Presented by: Daniele Vignoli
First Birth Losses and Gains under Economic Uncertainty in Italy
- Conference: “X Coneferenza ESPANET Italia 2017″, Università di Bologna – Campus Forlì, 21-23/9/2017
- Authors: Daniele Vignoli, Valentina Tocchioni, Alessandra Mattei
- Presented by: Daniele Vignoli